COVID19 WAVEWATCHER 2020-05-07 DATA REVIEW

May 09, 2020 — Wes Monceaux

In each data review, I will look at the charts for each state and comment on the most notable changes. I will make an effort to compare against the information available about what these states are doing with respect to their mitigation efforts.

States with concerning results for 2020-05-07 include: Minnesota and Nebraska


I considered just choosing states with results that I felt were noteworthy for that day. But part of me wanted to comment on all of them, even if it was "holding steady". So that is what I have chosen to do.

I will go through every state (plus the District of Columbia) and the U.S. overall. I will provide information about current reopening efforts in each state when it makes sense. I will be pulling reopening information from the NPR series https://www.npr.org/series/847328455/coronavirus-restrictions-in-each-state.

It has been about a week since the Federal stay-at-home recommendation expired. Since it usually takes a couple of weeks for new infections to show up, along with a reporting lag, I would not expect to see trends that were not already underway before May 1st.


Alabama

Using the baseline trend (I will use the word "trend" often to refer to the line generated by linear regression) for 2020-04-17 through 2020-04-30, Alabama appears to have a slight increase in cases. If you take the data points for cases from day 15 forward, it looks like a new line with a steeper slope, indicating an increase in rate of cases.

Alabama is under a "Safer at Home" order from 2020-04-30 through 2020-05-15. A few things to note:

  • Most businesses to reopen with 50 percent occupancy with sanitation procedures in place
  • Beaches are also open
  • Six feet of distancing
  • Gatherings limited to 10 or fewer people

Alabama NYTimes Alabama JHU


Alaska

Alaska began Phase One of their reopening plan on 2020-04-24. Phase Two began on 2020-05-08, which allows most nonessential businesses to operate with certain limitations.

The number of cases for Alaska appear to slightly under the baseline trend. Looks like a slightly slower rate of cases.

Alaska NYTimes Alaska JHU


Arizona

Arizona is under a stay-at-home order from 2020-03-31 through 2020-05-15. Retail businesses are able to offer curbside pickup on 2020-05-04 and in-person operations on 2020-05-08. Barber shops and salons can open for appointment-based services starting 2020-05-08.

Arizona definitely shows an increase in the number of cases over the baseline trend. It appears that at day 13 forward would give a line with an increased rate of cases.

Arizona NYTimes Arizona JHU


Arkansas

Arkansas is one of the only states not to have a state-wide stay-at-home order. It has put in place restrictions on size of gatherings.

Arkansas case numbers are much lower than the baseline trend predicted. The new case numbers, however, are starting to show a slight upward trend over days 17 through 20.

Arkansas NYTimes Arkansas JHU


California

California has been under a stay-at-home order. On 2020-05-08, the state goes into Stage 2 which allows counties to modify the stay-at-home order as they see fit. Stage 2 also allows lower-risk businesses to offer curbside pickup. Shopping malls and in-restaurant dining would still be prohibited, however.

California cases match up with the baseline trend. The rate of new cases appears steady, but not declining.

California NYTimes California JHU


Colorado

Colorado is currently in a "Safer at Home" phase which is to last from 2020-04-27 for 30 days. As of 2020-05-04, with appropriate precautions in place:

  • Retail businesses can offer curbside and limited in-person services
  • Real estate showings are permitted
  • Elective medical procedures can resume
  • Offices can reopen at 50 percent in-person staff capacity with social distancing
  • Child care facilities can open if they meet specified requirements

The number of cases in Colorado are slightly below the baseline trend, but otherwise appear to share a similar slope. There does not appear to be a slowing in the rate of cases.

Colorado NYTimes Colorado JHU


Connecticut

Connecticut is under a "Stay Safe, Stay at Home" order through 2020-05-20.

The number of cases in Connecticut is below the baseline trend. There does appear to be a noticeable rate reduction in cases from the baseline.

Connecticut NYTimes Connecticut JHU


Delaware

The cases in Delaware appear to fall slightly below the baseline trend. There appears to be a drop in cases on days 17 and 18 that fall a bit further under the baseline. However, the cases on day 19 and 20 jump back up closer to the baseline. This causes me to wonder if there was a delay in test reporting during that time period.

Delaware NYTimes Delaware JHU


District of Columbia

Cases in the District of Columbia are higher than the baseline. However, there appears to be a span from day 10 through 13 of lower cases that pull the baseline slope down. If you ignore those days, the rate of cases does not appear to have actually changed since mid-April.

District of Columbia NYTimes District of Columbia JHU


Florida

Cases in Florida appear to be following the baseline trend. No reduction in the rate of cases is indicated.

Florida NYTimes Florida JHU


Georgia

The JHU and NYTimes data appear to have slightly different data points for Georgia. The number of cases is mostly in line (possible slightly above) the those predicted by the baseline trend. No reduction in the rate of cases is indicated.

Georgia NYTimes Georgia JHU


Hawaii

The case numbers for Hawaii are lower than those predicted by the baseline trend. Based on the totals for days 18 through 20, the line could almost be flat. Since the number of cases reported each day is cumulative, a line with a slope of zero would indicate a rate of zero (that there have been no new cases). That is the ultimate goal we want to reach.

Hawaii NYTimes Hawaii JHU


Idaho

The JHU and NYTimes numbers differ a bit for Idaho. Overall, it appears that the rate of cases in Idaho are close, or slightly below, the baseline trend.

Idaho NYTimes Idaho JHU


Illinois

The rate of cases in Illinois appears to be increasing compared to the baseline trend.

Illinois NYTimes Illinois JHU


Indiana

The rate of cases in Indiana appears slightly higher than the baseline trend.

Indiana NYTimes Indiana JHU


Iowa

The rate of cases in Iowa definitely appears to be higher than the baseline trend.

Iowa NYTimes Iowa JHU


Kansas

The rate of cases in Kansas definitely appears to be higher than the baseline trend.

Kansas NYTimes Kansas JHU


Kentucky

While the data points for days 18 through 20 appear higher than predicted by the baseline trend, the rate of cases in Kentucky appears to share the same slope/rate as the baseline.

Kentucky NYTimes Kentucky JHU


Louisiana

The rate of cases in Louisiana appears in line with the baseline trend.

Louisiana NYTimes Louisiana JHU


Maine

The number of cases is slightly higher for Maine than predicted by the baseline trend. However, day 20 shows a larger jump in case numbers. This could be a lag in test reporting or a discovery of a large group of cases at once. It will take more data to know see if that is the case.

Maine NYTimes Maine JHU


Maryland

The rate of cases in Maryland appears to be slightly higher than the baseline trend.

Maryland NYTimes Maryland JHU


Massachusetts

The rate of cases in Massachusetts appears to be lower than the baseline trend.

Massachusetts NYTimes Massachusetts JHU


Michigan

The rate of cases in Michigan appears to be slightly lower than the baseline trend.

Michigan NYTimes Michigan JHU


Minnesota

The rate of cases in Minnesota is vastly higher than the baseline trend. They appeared to double the number of cases in about a week (4,000 to 8,000). Minnesota has a current stay-at-home order, so it is curious what could be driving the increase in case rates.

Minnesota NYTimes Minnesota JHU


Mississippi

The rate of cases in Mississippi appears to be in line with the baseline trend.

Mississippi NYTimes Mississippi JHU


Missouri

The rate of cases in Missouri appears to be slightly higher than the baseline trend.

Missouri NYTimes Missouri JHU


Montana

The rate of cases in Montana appears to be lower than the baseline trend. The number of cases have not changed in a few days, bringing the rate of cases to near zero.

Montana NYTimes Montana JHU


Nebraska

The rate of cases in Nebraska is much higher than the baseline trend. Nebraska has not issued a stay-at-home orders. The state's health directives, however, have comparable enforceable restrictions on gatherings, etc.

Nebraska NYTimes Nebraska JHU


Nevada

The rate of cases in Nevada appears to be in line with the baseline trend.

Nevada NYTimes Nevada JHU


New Hampshire

The rate of cases in New Hampshire appears to be higher than the baseline trend.

New Hampshire NYTimes New Hampshire JHU


New Jersey

The rate of cases in New Jersey appears to be slightly lower than the baseline trend.

New Jersey NYTimes New Jersey JHU


New Mexico

The rate of cases in New Mexico appears to be slightly higher than the baseline trend.

New Mexico NYTimes New Mexico JHU


New York

The rate of cases in New York appears to be slightly lower than the baseline trend.

New York NYTimes New York JHU


North Carolina

The rate of cases in North Carolina appears to be in line with (bordering on slightly higher than) the baseline trend.

North Carolina NYTimes North Carolina JHU


North Dakota

The rate of cases in North Dakota appears to be in line with the baseline trend.

North Dakota NYTimes North Dakota JHU


Ohio

The rate of cases in Ohio appears to be in line with the baseline trend.

Ohio NYTimes Ohio JHU


Oklahoma

The rate of cases in Oklahoma appears to be in line with the baseline trend.

Oklahoma NYTimes Oklahoma JHU


Oregon

The rate of cases in Oregon appears to be in line with the baseline trend.

Oregon NYTimes Oregon JHU


Pennsylvania

The rate of cases in Pennsylvania appears to be slightly lower than the baseline trend.

Pennsylvania NYTimes Pennsylvania JHU


Rhode Island

The rate of cases in Rhode Island appears to be lower than the baseline trend.

Rhode Island NYTimes Rhode Island JHU


South Carolina

The rate of cases in South Carolina appears to be in line with the baseline trend.

South Carolina NYTimes South Carolina JHU


South Dakota

The rate of cases in South Dakota appears to be slightly lower than the baseline trend.

South Dakota NYTimes South Dakota JHU


Tennessee

Tennessee number of cases appear to jump on day 14, but otherwise share a similar rate as the baseline trend.

Tennessee NYTimes Tennessee JHU


Texas

The rate of cases in Texas appears to be slightly higher than the baseline trend.

Texas NYTimes Texas JHU


Utah

The rate of cases in Utah appears to be in line with the baseline trend.

Utah NYTimes Utah JHU


Vermont

Vermont has a comparatively low number of total cases to other states. The rate of cases in Vermont appears to be in line with the baseline trend.

Vermont NYTimes Vermont JHU


Virginia

Other than a dip in the reported cases on day 19, the rate of cases in Virginia appears to be slightly higher than the baseline trend.

Virginia NYTimes Virginia JHU


Washington

The rate of cases in Washington appears to be mostly in line with the baseline trend.

Washington NYTimes Washington JHU


West Virginia

The rate of cases in West Virginia appears to be in line with the baseline trend.

West Virginia NYTimes West Virginia JHU


Wisconsin

The rate of cases in Wisconsin appears to be higher than the baseline trend.

Wisconsin NYTimes Wisconsin JHU


Wyoming

Wyoming has a very low number of cases compared to other states. The rate of cases in Wyoming appears to be much lower than the baseline trend.

Wyoming NYTimes Wyoming JHU


United States

The rate of cases in the United States appears to be in line with the baseline trend. The rates of states with the largest number of cases likely dominate this value. Might be worthwhile to remove New York and California to see how that affects the rate.

United States NYTimes United States JHU


Tags: covid19, covidwavewatcher

Comments? Tweet