COVID19 WAVEWATCHER 2020-05-08 DATA REVIEW

May 10, 2020 — Wes Monceaux

In each data review, I will look at the charts for each state and comment on the most notable changes. I will make an effort to compare against the information available about what these states are doing with respect to their mitigation efforts.

States with concerning results for 2020-05-08 include: Kansas, Maine, Minnesota, Nebraska, and Wisconsin


I will go through every state (plus the District of Columbia) and the U.S. overall. I will provide information about current reopening efforts in each state when it makes sense. I will be pulling reopening information from the NPR series https://www.npr.org/series/847328455/coronavirus-restrictions-in-each-state.

The baseline trend (I will use the word "trend" often to refer to the line generated by linear regression) for 2020-04-17 through 2020-04-30 applies to the results discussed here.


Alabama

The rate of cases in Alabama continues to follow the increased rate we saw in the 2020-05-07 data, which is higher than the baseline trend.

Alabama NYTimes Alabama JHU


Alaska

The rate of cases in Alaska continues to follow the lower rate we saw in the 2020-05-07 data, which is lower than the baseline trend.

Alaska NYTimes Alaska JHU


Arizona

The rate of cases in Arizona continues to follow the higher rate we saw in the 2020-05-07 data, which is significantly higher than the baseline trend.

Arizona NYTimes Arizona JHU


Arkansas

The rate of cases in Arkansas continues to follow the lower rate we saw in the 2020-05-07 data, which is much lower than the baseline trend. The NYTimes data seems to more clearly show a trend line for the more recent data points.

Arkansas NYTimes Arkansas JHU


California

The rate of cases in California continues to follow the baseline trend.

California NYTimes California JHU


Colorado

The rate of cases in Colorado continues to follow the baseline trend.

Colorado NYTimes Colorado JHU


Connecticut

The rate of cases in Connecticut continues to follow the lower rate we saw in the 2020-05-07 data, which is noticeably lower than the baseline trend.

Connecticut NYTimes Connecticut JHU


Delaware

The rate of cases in Delaware is mostly following the baseline trend. The number of cases is slightly lower than predicted, but the rate appears similar to the baseline trend.

Delaware NYTimes Delaware JHU


District of Columbia

The rate of cases in the District of Columbia continues to follow the rate we saw in the 2020-05-07 data, which is similar to the baseline trend. There appears to be a span from day 10 through 13 of lower cases that pull the baseline slope down. If you ignore those days, the rate of cases does not appear to have actually changed since mid-April.

District of Columbia NYTimes District of Columbia JHU


Florida

The rate of cases in Florida continues to follow the baseline trend. No reduction in the rate of cases is indicated.

Florida NYTimes Florida JHU


Georgia

The rate of cases in Georgia continues to follow the baseline trend. No reduction in the rate of cases is indicated.

Georgia NYTimes Georgia JHU


Hawaii

The case numbers for Hawaii are lower than those predicted by the baseline trend. The line could almost be flat, indicating few to no new reported cases.

Hawaii NYTimes Hawaii JHU


Idaho

The JHU and NYTimes numbers differ a bit for Idaho. Overall, it appears that the rate of cases in Idaho continue to be close, or slightly below, the baseline trend.

Idaho NYTimes Idaho JHU


Illinois

The rate of cases in Illinois continues to follow the increased rate we saw in the 2020-05-07 data, which is higher than the baseline trend.

Illinois NYTimes Illinois JHU


Indiana

The rate of cases in Indiana continues to follow the slightly higher rate we saw in the 2020-05-07 data, which is higher than the baseline trend.

Indiana NYTimes Indiana JHU


Iowa

The rate of cases in Iowa continues to follow the increased rate we saw in the 2020-05-07 data, which is higher than the baseline trend. However, if you take the last few data points, they form a line with a similar slope to that of the baseline trend.

Iowa NYTimes Iowa JHU


Kansas

The rate of cases in Kansas continues to follow the higher rate we saw in the 2020-05-07 data, which is higher than the baseline trend. The rate based on the last few data points appears to increase even more compared to the 2020-05-07 data.

Kansas NYTimes Kansas JHU


Kentucky

While the data points for days 18 through 21 appear higher than predicted by the baseline trend, the rate of cases in Kentucky appears to share the same slope/rate as the baseline.

Kentucky NYTimes Kentucky JHU


Louisiana

The rate of cases in Louisiana appears in line with the baseline trend.

Louisiana NYTimes Louisiana JHU


Maine

The rate of cases in Maine continues to follow the higher rate we saw in the 2020-05-07 data, which is higher than the baseline trend. The jump in number of cases seen on day 20 is not repeated on day 21. However, the line formed by day 20 and 21 still shows a higher rate than the baseline trend. It will take more data to know see if that is the case.

Maine NYTimes Maine JHU


Maryland

The rate of cases in Maryland continues to follow the slightly higher rate we saw in the 2020-05-07 data, which is higher than the baseline trend.

Maryland NYTimes Maryland JHU


Massachusetts

The rate of cases in Massachusetts continues to follow the lower rate we saw in the 2020-05-07 data, which is lower than the baseline trend.

Massachusetts NYTimes Massachusetts JHU


Michigan

The rate of cases in Michigan continues to be slightly lower than the baseline trend.

Michigan NYTimes Michigan JHU


Minnesota

The rate of cases in Minnesota continues to follow the vastly higher rate we saw in the 2020-05-07 data, which is much higher than the baseline trend. The rate is looking exponential.

Minnesota NYTimes Minnesota JHU


Mississippi

The rate of cases in Mississippi continues to mostly follow the rate we saw in the 2020-05-07 data, which is in line with the baseline trend. The latest data point could indicate the start of an increased rate.

Mississippi NYTimes Mississippi JHU


Missouri

The rate of cases in Missouri continues to be slightly higher than the baseline trend.

Missouri NYTimes Missouri JHU


Montana

The rate of cases in Montana continues to be lower than the baseline trend. The number of cases have not changed in a few days, bringing the rate of cases to near zero.

Montana NYTimes Montana JHU


Nebraska

The rate of cases in Nebraska continues to follow the much higher rate we saw in the 2020-05-07 data, which is higher than the baseline trend. Based on the last two data points, it is possible the rate has increased a bit more.

Nebraska NYTimes Nebraska JHU


Nevada

The rate of cases in Nevada continues to be in line with the baseline trend.

Nevada NYTimes Nevada JHU


New Hampshire

The rate of cases in New Hampshire continues to be higher than the baseline trend.

New Hampshire NYTimes New Hampshire JHU


New Jersey

The rate of cases in New Jersey continues to be lower than the baseline trend.

New Jersey NYTimes New Jersey JHU


New Mexico

The rate of cases in New Mexico continues to be slightly higher than the baseline trend.

New Mexico NYTimes New Mexico JHU


New York

The rate of cases in New York continues to be lower than the baseline trend.

New York NYTimes New York JHU


North Carolina

The rate of cases in North Carolina continues to be in line with (bordering on slightly higher than) the baseline trend.

North Carolina NYTimes North Carolina JHU


North Dakota

The rate of cases in North Dakota continues to be in line with the baseline trend.

North Dakota NYTimes North Dakota JHU


Ohio

The rate of cases in Ohio continues to be in line with the baseline trend.

Ohio NYTimes Ohio JHU


Oklahoma

The rate of cases in Oklahoma continues to be in line with the baseline trend.

Oklahoma NYTimes Oklahoma JHU


Oregon

The rate of cases in Oregon continues to mostly follow the baseline trend. The last few data points are starting to look like a slight rate increase.

Oregon NYTimes Oregon JHU


Pennsylvania

The rate of cases in Pennsylvania continues to be slightly lower than the baseline trend.

Pennsylvania NYTimes Pennsylvania JHU


Rhode Island

The rate of cases in Rhode Island continues to be lower than the baseline trend.

Rhode Island NYTimes Rhode Island JHU


South Carolina

The rate of cases in South Carolina continues to be in line with the baseline trend.

South Carolina NYTimes South Carolina JHU


South Dakota

The rate of cases in South Dakota was lower than the baseline trend in the 2020-05-07 data. The data point for day 21 matches the baseline prediction. This could be a lag in reported testing results in previous days. Need more data to see.

South Dakota NYTimes South Dakota JHU


Tennessee

Tennessee number of cases appear to jump on day 14, but otherwise continues share a similar rate as the baseline trend.

Tennessee NYTimes Tennessee JHU


Texas

The rate of cases in Texas continues to follow the slightly higher rate we saw in the 2020-05-07 data, which is higher than the baseline trend.

Texas NYTimes Texas JHU


Utah

The rate of cases in Utah continues to be in line with the baseline trend.

Utah NYTimes Utah JHU


Vermont

The rate of cases in Vermont continues to be in line with the baseline trend.

Vermont NYTimes Vermont JHU


Virginia

Other than a dip in the reported cases on day 19, the rate of cases in Virginia continues to be slightly higher than the baseline trend.

Virginia NYTimes Virginia JHU


Washington

The rate of cases in Washington continues to be mostly in line with the baseline trend.

Washington NYTimes Washington JHU


West Virginia

The rate of cases in West Virginia continues to be in line with the baseline trend.

West Virginia NYTimes West Virginia JHU


Wisconsin

The rate of cases in Wisconsin continues to follow the higher rate we saw in the 2020-05-07 data, which is higher than the baseline trend. It looks like they could hit 10,000 cases in the next couple of days, whereas the baseline trend predicted a week from now.

Wisconsin NYTimes Wisconsin JHU


Wyoming

The rate of cases in Wyoming continues to be much lower than the baseline trend.

Wyoming NYTimes Wyoming JHU


United States

The rate of cases in the United States continues to be in line with the baseline trend. The rates of states with the largest number of cases likely dominate this value. Might be worthwhile to remove New York and California to see how that affects the rate.

United States NYTimes United States JHU


Tags: covid19, covidwavewatcher

Comments? Tweet