COVID19 WAVEWATCHER 2020-05-09 DATA REVIEW

May 11, 2020 — Wes Monceaux

I have updated the charts produced to include a regression line for the last 14 data points. I find it more helpful for determining the trend in the latest data points. It also makes it fairly self-explanatory, so I do not need to comment on those parts of the chart.

I also added charts for different regions of the U.S.

States with concerning results for 2020-05-09 include: U.S. South, U.S. Midwest, Arizona, Kansas, Maine, Minnesota, Nebraska, and Wisconsin


I will be pulling reopening information from the NPR series https://www.npr.org/series/847328455/coronavirus-restrictions-in-each-state, as needed.

The baseline trend (I will use the word "trend" often to refer to the line generated by linear regression) for 2020-04-17 through 2020-04-30 (blue dashed line) applies to the results discussed here. The red dotted line indicates the linear regression (trend) of the last 14 days. The large red dots indicate the reported cases data points. The black dots are reported deaths. The green dashed line is the baseline trend for reported deaths.


United States

Overall, the new case rate for the country appears to be decreasing compared to the baseline rate.

United States NYTimes United States JHU


U.S. South

The U.S. South appears to have an increase in rates of new cases. The states included in this list:

  • Alabama
  • Arkansas
  • Florida
  • Georgia
  • Kentucky
  • Louisiana
  • Maryland
  • Mississippi
  • North Carolina
  • Oklahoma
  • South Carolina
  • Tennessee
  • Texas
  • Virginia
  • West Virginia

U.S. South NYTimes U.S. South JHU


U.S. Northeast

The U.S. Northeast appears to have significant decrease in rates of new cases. This is likely mostly driven by the lower rates of New York and New Jersey. The states included in this list:

  • Connecticut
  • Delaware
  • District of Columbia
  • Maine
  • Massachusetts
  • New Hampshire
  • New Jersey
  • New York
  • Pennsylvania
  • Rhode Island
  • Vermont

U.S. Northeast NYTimes U.S. Northeast JHU


U.S. Midwest

The U.S. Midwest appears to have an increase in rates of new cases. The states included in this list:

  • Illinois
  • Indiana
  • Iowa
  • Kansas
  • Michigan
  • Minnesota
  • Missouri
  • Nebraska
  • North Dakota
  • Ohio
  • South Dakota
  • Wisconsin

U.S. Midwest NYTimes U.S. Midwest JHU


U.S. West

The U.S. West appears to have a slight increase in rates of new cases. The states included in this list:

  • Alaska
  • Arizona
  • California
  • Colorado
  • Hawaii
  • Idaho
  • Montana
  • Nevada
  • New Mexico
  • Oregon
  • Utah
  • Washington
  • Wyoming

U.S. West NYTimes U.S. West JHU


States with fewer than 25k cases

While the United States, overall, appears to have a decrease in the rate of new cases, I thought it would be interesting to look at the states that have fewer numbers of cases than those of New York, New Jersey, etc.

It does appear that in the states with currently fewer than 25k reported cases, that the rate of new cases is higher than the baseline for that group of states.

Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
Colorado
Delaware
District of Columbia
Hawaii
Idaho
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Maine
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Mexico
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming

States with fewer than 25k cases NYTimes States with fewer than 25k cases JHU


States with fewer than 50k cases

It also appears that in the states with currently fewer than 50k reported cases, that the rate of new cases is higher than the baseline for that group of states.

Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
District of Columbia
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Mexico
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming

States with fewer than 50k cases NYTimes States with fewer than 50k cases JHU


States with more than 50k cases

In the group of states with more than 50k cases, the rate of new cases appears to be lower than the baseline.

California
Illinois
Massachusetts
New Jersey
New York
Pennsylvania

States with more than 50k cases NYTimes States with more than 50k cases JHU


Alabama

Alabama NYTimes Alabama JHU


Alaska

Alaska NYTimes Alaska JHU


Arizona

Arizona NYTimes Arizona JHU


Arkansas

Arkansas NYTimes Arkansas JHU


California

California NYTimes California JHU


Colorado

Colorado NYTimes Colorado JHU


Connecticut

Connecticut NYTimes Connecticut JHU


Delaware

Delaware NYTimes Delaware JHU


District of Columbia

District of Columbia NYTimes District of Columbia JHU


Florida

Florida NYTimes Florida JHU


Georgia

Georgia NYTimes Georgia JHU


Hawaii

Hawaii NYTimes Hawaii JHU


Idaho

Idaho NYTimes Idaho JHU


Illinois

Illinois NYTimes Illinois JHU


Indiana

Indiana NYTimes Indiana JHU


Iowa

Iowa NYTimes Iowa JHU


Kansas

Kansas NYTimes Kansas JHU


Kentucky

Kentucky NYTimes Kentucky JHU


Louisiana

Louisiana NYTimes Louisiana JHU


Maine

Maine NYTimes Maine JHU


Maryland

Maryland NYTimes Maryland JHU


Massachusetts

Massachusetts NYTimes Massachusetts JHU


Michigan

Michigan NYTimes Michigan JHU


Minnesota

Minnesota NYTimes Minnesota JHU


Mississippi

Mississippi NYTimes Mississippi JHU


Missouri

Missouri NYTimes Missouri JHU


Montana

Montana NYTimes Montana JHU


Nebraska

Nebraska NYTimes Nebraska JHU


Nevada

Nevada NYTimes Nevada JHU


New Hampshire

New Hampshire NYTimes New Hampshire JHU


New Jersey

New Jersey NYTimes New Jersey JHU


New Mexico

New Mexico NYTimes New Mexico JHU


New York

New York NYTimes New York JHU


North Carolina

North Carolina NYTimes North Carolina JHU


North Dakota

North Dakota NYTimes North Dakota JHU


Ohio

Ohio NYTimes Ohio JHU


Oklahoma

Oklahoma NYTimes Oklahoma JHU


Oregon

Oregon NYTimes Oregon JHU


Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania NYTimes Pennsylvania JHU


Rhode Island

Rhode Island NYTimes Rhode Island JHU


South Carolina

South Carolina NYTimes South Carolina JHU


South Dakota

South Dakota NYTimes South Dakota JHU


Tennessee

Tennessee NYTimes Tennessee JHU


Texas

Texas NYTimes Texas JHU


Utah

Utah NYTimes Utah JHU


Vermont

Vermont NYTimes Vermont JHU


Virginia

Virginia NYTimes Virginia JHU


Washington

Washington NYTimes Washington JHU


West Virginia

West Virginia NYTimes West Virginia JHU


Wisconsin

Wisconsin NYTimes Wisconsin JHU


Wyoming

Wyoming NYTimes Wyoming JHU


Tags: covid19, covidwavewatcher

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